The BNR warns that inflation will rise from April 2026, against the backdrop of the removal of the ceiling for commercial markups, but will decrease in the second half of the year.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has published the Inflation Report, which announces that, although inflation is slowly decreasing in the first quarter of 2026, it will rise in April, in the second quarter, due to the removal of the ceiling on the commercial markup for food and the evolution of commodity prices. In the third quarter of 2026, inflation will experience a sharp downward correction, followed by a gradual decrease in the first half of 2027, according to BNR forecasts. The bank signals uncertainties related to future budget consolidation measures and external risks, including geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions. The absorption of European funds, especially those from the PNRR, is considered essential to counterbalance the negative effects. Additionally, BNR has decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per year.