Trump threatens NATO: Withdrawal from the Alliance, a real option? (Politico)

The American president Donald Trump has threatened with withdrawal from NATO, dissatisfied with the allies' refusal to join the war against Iran. In an interview, Trump stated that he is disappointed with NATO, suggesting that the Alliance would not be there if he ever needed help:

“I am disappointed in them. If I ever needed them, they wouldn’t be there.”

Although he has not taken concrete actions, his threats raise questions about the future of NATO. Politico spoke with experts who outlined five possible scenarios for the future of the Alliance:

1. Intensification of rhetoric

Donald Trump continues to criticize NATO and to question the U.S. commitment to Article 5. This undermines trust among allies and may encourage adversaries like Vladimir Putin to test the Alliance.

European leaders have warned that Trump compromises NATO through these statements: “Alliances like NATO are valuable because of the trust they are based on. If every day you sow doubts about your commitment, you empty (i.e. NATO) of its essence,” said Emmanuel Macron.

2. Disruption of NATO activities

The U.S. is not leaving NATO, but is blocking decisions and internal processes, taking advantage of the consensus rule. Tensions and delays in the functioning of the Alliance may arise, including through financial pressures or ideas like “pay-for-play,” which would prevent allies who do not meet their spending goals from having a say in joint missions or from triggering Article 5.

3. Withdrawal of American troops

Washington could reduce the number of soldiers in Europe, affecting NATO's military capacity. Although Europeans could partially compensate, there would be an impact on the speed and effectiveness of interventions. However, a massive withdrawal is unlikely for strategic reasons.

4. Gradual exit from the Alliance

The U.S. remains formally in NATO but withdraws from key mechanisms (military planning, meetings, command). This would practically paralyze the functioning of the Alliance and force Europe to cover major gaps. It is a very damaging scenario, even without an official exit.

5. Radical exit

The U.S. completely leaves NATO, despite legal and political obstacles. It would be a major shock for global security and would call into question the existence of the Alliance. The consequences would be profound for both Europe and the global geopolitical balance.

Although an official withdrawal would involve legal obstacles, Trump could act unilaterally, considering the precedent of the withdrawal from the "Open Skies" treaty.