Elections in Hungary: Prediction platforms indicate a rapid increase in favor of Péter Magyar, to the detriment of Viktor Orbán

Just two days before the parliamentary elections in Hungary, predictions from the prediction markets indicate a rapid shift in favor of Péter Magyar.

On the Kalshi platform, the contract tracking which party will win the most seats in parliament now predicts a result led by TISZA at 78%, while the chances for a result for Orbán have dropped to 18%, the lowest level recorded.

At the beginning of February, both parties were nearly equal, but by April 8, Orbán's chances had already decreased to 23.2%. This latest move extends the gap, adding approximately 5 percentage points in the negative for Orbán.

On Polymarket, traders assign Magyar a 71% probability of becoming prime minister, while Orbán has dropped to 28%. The total volume of the Polymarket contract has risen to 58 million dollars, indicating continuous flows as election day approaches. Despite the growing gap, transactions remain active on both sides, suggesting a continuation of risk coverage. Orbán enters the elections after 16 years in power, in an electoral system that continues to favor the major parties.