Russia could use false flag operations in Transnistria to destabilize Moldova and undermine Ukrainian grain exports
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The Kremlin could also use propaganda to justify such an action, amid increasing references to 'compatriots abroad' and the 'Russian World'. This action could be used to discourage countries from participating in Ukraine's grain corridor, despite Russia's weak presence in the western Black Sea.
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Ukraine has lost approximately one third of its grain export capacity through the Black Sea ports due to Russia's attacks.
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