U.S. officials increasingly view an invasion of Taiwan by China before 2028 as unlikely, despite Xi Jinping’s order to have the military ready by 2027

China could consider intensifying military pressure on Taiwan after the 2028 elections, in the event of another victory by the Democratic Progressive Party, especially if President Lai Ching Te were reelected, according to sources cited by Reuters. Beijing could resort to force if it concludes that political developments in Taipei rule out the prospect of peaceful reunification.

American analysts argue that 2027 is not a fixed deadline for launching an invasion, but rather the date by which the People’s Liberation Army should have the capabilities necessary for a potential operation against Taiwan.

China’s military planning has been affected by the anti-corruption campaign launched by Xi Jinping. The purges and investigations have reduced the leadership of the Central Military Commission to two active members, from seven previously. Chinese military exercises were more limited last year, while activity increased this year, without all training objectives being achieved.

American officials believe that an operation against Taiwan would have to be conducted quickly in order to avoid a protracted conflict. The United States remains the island’s main arms supplier, but President Donald Trump temporarily blocked a military assistance package worth approximately 14 billion dollars, using it as a bargaining lever after his meeting with Xi Jinping. Differences over the delivery schedule and Beijing’s strategy remain at the center of security assessments.