Elections in Bulgaria: Iliana Iotova and Andrei Gyurov in the race for the country’s future. The war in Ukraine and relations with Russia, central themes of the campaign

Raluca Ioana Draghici

25 October 2026, 05:37

International

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Bulgaria is holding the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, October 25, in a vote of major significance for the country’s foreign policy orientation and the future of the government led by Rumen Radev. The election is taking place against the backdrop of drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, incidents that have brought relations with Russia, support for Ukraine, and the security of NATO’s eastern flank back to the center of the debate.

Iliana Iotova, the interim president and a close ally of Radev, is the favorite in the first round, with 43.4% in the latest poll. The opposition’s pro-European candidate, Andrei Gyurov, is credited with 28.9%, while Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the radically pro-Russian “Revival” party, has 10.2%. A second round is considered almost certain, with turnout estimated at 38–40%.

Iotova supports a diplomatic approach and proposes a moratorium on the use of drones in the Black Sea, as well as consultations with Romania and Turkey. Gyurov describes the war as Russian aggression, supports continuing aid to Ukraine, and calls for consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty.

An Iotova victory would consolidate the power of the “Progressive Bulgaria” party, founded by Radev, which secured a parliamentary majority. By contrast, Gyurov’s success could trigger a new political realignment and even the fall of the current government.

The president of Bulgaria has significant powers in forming governments, calling snap elections, and appointing key officials.

Context: before Bulgaria’s presidential election, relations with Russia returned to the forefront after drone attacks in the Black Sea and controversial positions taken by Prime Minister Radev

A few days before the vote, the Bulgarian authorities were placed at the center of a series of incidents: the vessel CHELSEA 3 (flying the Maltese flag and owned by Ukrainians) was hit by three drones east of Bulgaria’s coastline, while a second vessel, HS Dignity, sank near Krapets. Prime Minister Rumen Radev stated that two vessels had been hit and one had sunk, and he subsequently met with Russia’s ambassador, Eleonora Mitrofanova, while Bulgaria announced that it would investigate the attacks with its allies and initiate consultations with Romania and Turkey on the safety of navigation. The European Commission condemned the attacks, describing them as “a new front of escalation”.

At the same time, Radev promoted a political line favorable to dialogue with Moscow: he supported the Trump–Putin agreement on diesel fuel supplies and criticized Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, stating that he did not support strikes against energy infrastructure “regardless of which side is targeted”. His government also received praise from Moscow for a more “restrained” rhetoric toward Russia, while Bulgaria announced that it would not join the “Coalition of the Willing”.