BAROMETRUL Informat.ro - INSCOP Research - Edition XI, May 2026. Chapter 1: Voting intentions for parliamentary elections | The first survey conducted after the motion of censure

BAROMETER Informat.ro - INSCOP Research - 11th Edition, May 2026

Chapter 1: Voting Intentions for Parliamentary Elections

According to the BAROMETER Informat.ro – INSCOP Research, 11th edition, conducted between May 11-14, 2026, PNL rises to the second position in the ranking of voting preferences for parliamentary elections, surpassing PSD. Significant differences are observed between the percentages in the voting intention ranking reported by those who choose a party and the percentages in the ranking of those who choose a party and declare that they will definitely vote (mobilized voters).

BAROMETER Informat.ro – INSCOP Research is a monthly opinion poll conducted by INSCOP Research on behalf of the news platform Informat.ro in partnership with the Strategic Thinking Group think tank.

BAROMETER Informat.ro – INSCOP Research aims to bring to the public's attention topics of interest to stimulate national conversations about various subjects and essential public policies for the present and future of Romania, based on the opinions of Romanians in partnership with prestigious think tanks and academic institutions. It is an initiative through which we aim to contribute to the strengthening of democracy by using scientific and credible tools that bring the voice of citizens to the forefront of public debate.

Methodology: Data were collected between May 11-14, 2026. Research method: interview via questionnaire. Data were collected using the CATI method (telephone interviews), with a simple random sample volume of 1100 people, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum allowable error of the data is ± 3%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Graphical presentation of the data is available here.

Remus Ștefureac, director of INSCOP Research: "The first Barometer Informat.ro-INSCOP conducted after the motion of censure shows some significant changes in the voting intentions of Romanians for political parties. AUR remains the main party in Romania in voting intention, relatively stable in the range of 38-41% (variation depending on the degree of mobilization of voters). A major change is observed regarding the second place. For the first time in the last six years, PNL surpasses PSD with a score of 20-22% (an increase of five percentage points compared to the previous month), while PSD falls to third place, with a significant loss, recording a score of 13-17% (a decrease of three percentage points compared to April). The difference between the two parties varies between 3 points in the ranking of voters who have an opinion and over 8 percentage points in the ranking of mobilized voters. USR is also in decline, reaching 10%, while UDMR remains in the usual range of 3-5%. The motion of censure has caused a strong polarization of Romanian society, which has led to a significant increase in PNL, led by Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, whose popularity has risen rapidly and somewhat unexpectedly. On the other hand, it can still be observed that the variation in electoral support for the major political blocs from April to May is not yet that significant either for voters who choose a party (the AUR - SOS - POT bloc remains at 43%, the PNL - USR bloc increases slightly by two percentage points from 28% to 30%, while PSD loses three percentage points from 20% to 17%), nor for mobilized voters (the AUR - SOS - POT bloc from 45% to 46%, the PNL - USR bloc from 31% to 33%, while PSD loses three percentage points, from 16% to 13%). Interestingly, compared to the situation a year ago (May 2025), AUR, PSD, and UDMR are practically at the same score, while PNL increases by four percentage points, and USR decreases by 2 percentage points."

Estimated voter turnout for parliamentary elections

On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means "definitely not" going to vote and 10 means "definitely yes" going to vote, 15.2% of Romanians chose 1, 0.5% chose 2, 0.4% chose 3, 0.3% chose 4, 3.6% chose 5, 1.2% chose 6, 2.4% chose 7. 4.4% indicate 8, 3.1% 9, and 67.4% indicate 10. 1.5% do not know or do not answer this question.

Voting intention for parliamentary elections

Regarding those who expressed a preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they would go or not definitely vote (77.4% of the total sample)

• AUR: 38.2% of voters would vote for AUR (compared to 37% in April 2026, 38% in March, 40.9% in January, 38% in November, 40% in October, 40.8% in September, 40.5% in June, 38.11% in May 2025).

• PNL: 20.3% for PNL (compared to 15.5% in April 2026, 14.5% in March, 13.5% in January, 14.6% in November, 14.8% in October, 15.2% in September, 17.3% in June, 16% in May 2025).

• PSD: 17.5% for PSD (compared to 20.1% in April 2026, 19.2% in March, 18.2% in January, 19.5% in November, 17.6% in October, 17.9% in September, 13.7% in June, 17.4% in May 2025).

• USR: 10% for USR (compared to 12.7% in April 2026, 11.4% in March, 11.7% in January, 12.3% in November, 11.5% in October, 12.8% in September, 13.1% in June, 12.2% in May 2025).

• UDMR: 5% of voters would vote for UDMR (compared to 4.3% in April 2026, 4% in March, 4.9% in January, 4.8% in November, 5.2% in October, 4% in September, 5.2% in June, 4.5% in May 2025).

• SOS Romania: 2.9% for SOS Romania (compared to 2.8% in April 2026, 3.3% in March, 2.8% in January, 1.7% in November, 2% in October, 2.8% in September, 1.9% in June 2025).

• SENS: 2.5% for SENS (compared to 2.4% in April 2026, 3.6% in March, 4% in January, 3.2% in November, 3.4% in October, 2.1% in September, 2.4% in June 2025).

• POT: 1.9% of voters would vote for POT (compared to 3.6% in April 2026, 3% in March 2026, 5% in January, 3.1% in November, 2.6% in October, 3.3% in September, 4.2% in June 2025)

• Independent: 0.9% express a preference for an independent candidate (compared to 1% in April 2026, 1.4% in March, 2% in January, 1% in November, 1.3% in October, 0.6% in September, 1.4% in June 2025).

• Other party: 0.9% of voters would vote for another party (compared to 0.7% in April 2026, 1.6% in March, 1.1% in January, 1.8% in November, 1.6% in October, 0.6% in September, 0.5% in June 2025)

Regarding those who expressed a preference for a party from the list and declared that they would definitely go to vote (57.9% of the total sample)

41.4% of those who expressed a voting opinion would vote for AUR (38.3% in April), 21.9% for PNL (16.9% in April), 13.3% for PSD (16.6% in April), 10.8% for USR (14.4% in April). 3.4% (3% in April) of voters would opt for UDMR, 3.1% (1.4% in April) for SOS Romania, 2.3% (2.2% in April) for SENS, and 1.7% (4.5% in April) for POT. 0.9% of respondents express a preference for an independent candidate (1.3% in April), and 1.1% for another party (1% in April).